American Enterprise Institute has issued a policy paper by UCLA Economics Professor Lee Ohanian entitled "The Impact of the Employee Free Choice Act on the U.S. Economy." From the Professor’s summary:
Gauging the impact of higher unionization on the economy, however, depends on how many more workers are unionized, how much their wages rise as a consequence of unionization and how this additional unionization indirectly impacts other aspects of the economy. To address these issues, I consider different assumptions regarding the number of new union members resulting from the passage of EFCA and different assumptions regarding how much their average wages would rise. I estimate that the impact of EFCA could reduce both the number of jobs and our gross domestic product by close to 4 percent under the assumption that unionization rates return to their levels in the 1970s, and these losses would persist for as long as unionization rates remained high.
Moreover, I find that job loss resulting from EFCA will fall disproportionately on workers with relatively low levels of education and skills. Ironically, it is these individuals that EFCA is specifically intended to help whom I find would be most negatively impacted by the proposed legislation. There are alternative policies that can promote wage growth for lower-skilled workers that are more efficient than unionization, including subsidies for education and job training. For example, each year, 10 million workers could receive $5,000 per year in training and education subsidies, which is only 1/10 of the possible cost of EFCA under the assumption that unionization rates return to their 1970s levels.
Read the entire report here.